Exit Polls 2026: Full Breakdown — Kerala, Bengal, Assam, Puducherry | What They Got Wrong in 2021

Exit Polls 2026: What Every Agency Predicted, What They Got Wrong in 2021, and Why Bengal Is the Only State That Matters on May 4

Every major exit poll agency has released predictions for Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry. But before you believe a single number — here's what the same agencies predicted in 2021, how badly they missed in Bengal, and why the 92% turnout changes everything. A state-by-state breakdown with full data from Axis My India, Matrize, Zeenia AI, CVoter, Peoples Pulse, and more.

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The Opening

Five states voted. The exit polls are out. And if you're anything like me, you're already scrolling through seventeen tabs trying to figure out who said what.

So let me save you the trouble.

I've pulled every major exit poll agency's numbers for Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry — and more importantly, I've compared them with what the same agencies said in 2021. Because here's what nobody's telling you in the breathless TV coverage: exit polls have a track record. And that track record is… complicated.

Results drop May 4. But the story the numbers are telling is already fascinating.

West Bengal: The State That Embarrassed Every Pollster in 2021

Let's start with the one that matters most — because it's the one where exit polls have been most wrong before.

In 2021, the majority of major agencies predicted BJP would win Bengal. India TV gave them 192 seats. Jan Ki Baat said 174. Republic-CNX said 143. Only ETG Research and Times Now-CVoter backed TMC.

What actually happened? TMC swept 213 out of 294 seats. BJP got 77. The pollsters weren't just wrong — they were in a different universe.

Fast forward to 2026. Six out of eight exit polls again predict a BJP victory. Zeenia AI says 144-160. Praja Poll goes as high as 178-208. Matrize says 146-161.

But two agencies — Janmat (TMC 195-205) and Peoples Pulse (TMC 177-187) — say TMC holds. And here's the number that should make every analyst pause: 92.47% voter turnout. The highest since Independence.

High turnout in Bengal has historically favoured the incumbent. In 2021, turnout was 82% and TMC swept. Now it's 92%. Is that angry anti-incumbency turnout, or is it a massive mobilisation by TMC's ground machinery?

Nobody knows. And anyone who says they do is selling something.

Kerala: The Pendulum Swings Back

Kerala politics has one iron rule: no government gets re-elected. For forty years, voters have alternated between the LDF (Left) and UDF (Congress-led) like clockwork.

In 2021, Pinarayi Vijayan broke that rule. The LDF won a historic second term with 99 seats. It was unprecedented.

Now, every single exit poll says the pendulum is swinging back. Manorama-CVoter gives UDF 82-94 seats. Axis My India says 78-90. Even the most conservative estimate (Zeenia AI) gives UDF 63-74.

The LDF is projected to drop from 99 seats to somewhere between 44 and 70. That's a potential loss of 30-55 seats. 

What changed? Five years of anti-incumbency, allegations against the government, and the UDF running a sharper campaign than 2021. BJP remains marginal — 0 to 5 seats across all projections.

If UDF wins, Kerala returns to its traditional pattern. If LDF holds — which no exit poll currently predicts — it would be an even bigger political earthquake than 2021.

Assam: Himanta's Fortress

Assam is the most predictable result in this cycle. Exit polls unanimously predict a BJP landslide under Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Matrize projects 85-95 seats out of 126. Zeenia AI says 80-86. Congress is projected at 25-35 seats — down from 50 in 2021.

In 2021, exit polls correctly predicted BJP's win in Assam, and the margin was close to accurate. NDA won 75 seats then. If the 2026 projections hold, BJP will improve to potentially a two-thirds majority.

Congress has struggled to build a coherent counter-narrative in the state. The AIUDF factor — which complicated opposition unity in 2021 — continues to split the anti-BJP vote. Barring a massive polling error, Assam stays saffron.

Puducherry: Small State, Clear Story

Puducherry has 30 seats. The majority mark is 16. And the story is straightforward: NDA retains under N. Rangaswamy.

Axis My India gives NDA 16-20 seats. Praja Poll goes higher at 19-25. The Congress-DMK alliance is projected at 6-12 seats.

The new variable is TVK — Vijay's party — projected to win 2-4 seats. Not enough to change the government, but enough to establish a presence.

In 2021, NDA scraped through with exactly 16 seats. This time, the projected margin is more comfortable. Rangaswamy's personal popularity appears to be carrying the alliance.

The 2021 Lesson Nobody Learned

Here's what I want you to take away before May 4.

Exit polls in 2021 got three states right (Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala) and one spectacularly wrong (West Bengal). The accuracy rate was roughly 75%.

The state they got wrong — Bengal — is the same state where exit polls are most divided in 2026. Six agencies say BJP. Two say TMC. The historical error margin in Bengal is massive.

So when you see a talking head on TV tonight saying "BJP will form government in Bengal," remember: they said the exact same thing in 2021. Mamata Banerjee won 213 seats.

Does that mean TMC will win again? Not necessarily. The political ground has shifted — SIR (Special Intensive Revision) of voter rolls, new campaign dynamics, and the 92% turnout all suggest something has changed. But what changed, and in whose favour — that's the ₹294-crore question.

Kerala looks like a UDF lock. Assam looks like a BJP lock. Puducherry looks like NDA retains. Bengal is the wildcard. See you on May 4.